Methane Jane - Spinning Again...

"Sustainability" Minister Jane Davidson launched the Welsh Assembly's new renewable energy strategy today, but when all the noble sentiments are stripped away, seems to me that the document that has been put out for public "consultation" is essentially the same dog's dinner that was fed to the hapless Welsh public with the Assembly's "Routemap" back in 2005.

The core of the Assembly's strategy revolves around the it's target for renewable electricity generation: 4 Terrawatt Hours by 2010, and 7 Terrawatt Hours by 2020. But this figure is curious enough in itself.

In other parts of the UK, and indeed on the Continent, targets for renewable energy generation are set as a simple percentage. For example, the UK government's figure is 10%, while the Scottish figure is a more ambitious 20% of electricity to come from renewable sources by 2010. By implication, in Scotland, or elsewhere, the other 80 - 90% of electricity will still come from non-renewable sources i.e. fossil fuels such as gas or coal, or nuclear.

But it's a start.

So why not a percentage figure for Wales? Why Terrawatt hours? Let's imagine for a minute that the target IS a simple percentage, and see what happens.

To hit a percentage target figure of, say 10%, implies that the amount of electricity generated from non-renewable sources is static, or declining. But what happens if the amount of electricity generated from, say, gas, is ramped up dramatically. Surely that will mean that a simple 10% target would be far harder to hit, if not impossible.

So let's say that we put a huge gas pipeline across Wales, and then we connect up a few gas-fired power stations to it, for good measure. We'll put a 2000 mw CCGT station in Pembrokeshire, an 800 mw CCGT station in Usk, and maybe another 2000mw CCGT station in Pembroke again, just for good measure. What happens to the target then?

Maybe the Assembly government had this in mind when they put together their renewable strategy, as they know that a simple "Terrawatt Hours" target is not a percentage of anything, and therefore masks the massive ramp-up in fossil fuel generation taking place across Wales, while simultaneously disguising the fact that the Assembly's target is basically nothing more than pissing in the wind.

Given the carbon-intensive nature of these industries, it will be interesting to see how the Assembly fiddles the figures for Wales' carbon emissions...